Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
